The US clean energy sector is experiencing a surge in activity, with tax credit transfers reaching up to $21 billion in the first half of 2026, according to Crux. The analyst's optimistic forecast for the remainder of the year suggests a total transfer value of $47.5-49 billion for 2026. This resilience is attributed to the solar industry's continued growth, despite a slight decline in its market share from 35% to 30% year-over-year. The wind sector, on the other hand, faced more significant challenges, with its share dropping from 23% to 7.5% due to prohibited foreign entity (PFE) and permitting issues.
The passage of the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) last year imposed a strict 4 July deadline for project developers to begin construction on solar and wind projects to secure tax credits introduced by the IRA. However, the US clean energy sector demonstrated its resilience, with $14.9 billion in transferable tax credit sales in the second quarter of 2026, the highest on record. This was made possible by the 'safe harbour' rules, allowing developers to reach a sufficient stage of development to secure the 45Y production tax credit (PTC) and the 48E investment tax credit (ITC).
The OBBBA's impact is expected to shift the focus towards storage, as developers seek to add battery energy storage systems (BESS) to their projects to access the ITC. This trend is supported by the desire to enhance energy security, with the US adding a record 9.7GWh of new BESS in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). Crux's forecasts indicate that batteries will account for more investment than any other technology by the end of the decade, a significant shift from solar's dominance in 2023.
In terms of manufacturing, the US clean energy sector is witnessing a rebound in investment. The first half of 2026 saw clean energy capex reach $74 billion, with a projected full-year total of $180 billion, an increase from $155 billion in 2025. This growth is primarily driven by solar supply chains, with investment in solar manufacturing rising 30% between the first and second quarters, reaching $893 million. The sector's optimism is further bolstered by the increasing number of new manufacturing project announcements, valued at $10 billion, the highest since the first quarter of 2024.
Despite the positive outlook, the US clean energy sector faces challenges, particularly in the wind sector, which has experienced a decline in investment due to PFE and permitting issues. The OBBBA's impact on the sector's future is also a topic of discussion, with a focus on the role of storage and the potential for further policy disruptions. The industry's resilience and growth prospects are a testament to the US's commitment to clean energy, with solar and storage expected to lead capacity deployments in the coming years.
